What does a programmer do on Halloween?
Debug specters in their code.
Why are servers scared in October?
Because they know a ghost attack is coming… the infamous Ghosting!
Why are programmatic ads scared on Halloween?
Because they’re afraid they’ll end up on ghost spam sites.
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Walmart
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The landscape of Connected TV (CTV) advertising is evolving as traditional linear TV buyers transition into the digital space. In this environment, programmatic guaranteed (PG) deals and upfront arrangements have become standard methods for selling and executing CTV inventory. These approaches provide predictability for both publishers and advertisers, allowing publishers to secure stable financial returns and buyers to purchase ad space at protected prices. However, the role of open real-time bidding (ORTB) is becoming more prominent as the CTV space matures, bringing both opportunities and challenges.
Programmatic Guaranteed and Upfront Deals: Stability at a Cost Upfronts and PG deals are essential to the CTV advertising ecosystem. They give publishers the ability to secure predictable financial returns by selling ad space in advance at fixed prices. For advertisers, these arrangements offer the benefit of market isolation, meaning they can secure premium ad placements at set rates without the risk of fluctuating market conditions. However, this comes with a trade-off: a lack of transparency in the pre-sale process. Buyers may find themselves locked into deals where the content they advertise against doesn’t meet the expected viewership numbers, ultimately delivering less value than anticipated.
Despite the limitations, purchasing premium content from top broadcasters in an open or biddable market isn’t always feasible, so upfronts and PG deals are expected to remain a key part of the CTV landscape. Yet, the rise of ORTB presents a new dynamic that could reshape the future of how CTV inventory is bought and sold.
The Shift Towards Open Real-Time Bidding Open real-time bidding (ORTB) is gaining momentum as a solution for both publishers and advertisers looking to optimize unsold CTV inventory. While programmatic methods are generally not designed to guarantee 100% fill rates or bid rates, ORTB offers an effective way for publishers to monetize leftover inventory and for buyers to reach targeted audiences at dynamic market rates. ORTB provides transparency into the monetization process, offering insights into the audience, context, and content in real-time. Additionally, it supports independent verification mechanisms, which adds a layer of accountability that was often missing in traditional methods.
At its core, ORTB aims to connect the right ad to the right audience at the right time, at a fair price. This system allows media owners to increase their yield through competition in open exchanges and private marketplaces. As the CTV space continues to grow, ORTB is evolving to meet the changing needs of the market.
Programmatic in an Evolving TV Market The TV landscape has seen a massive shift, especially as traditional linear TV buyers have moved into the CTV space. As CTV consumption and inventory surpass that of linear TV, programmatic methods, including upfronts and PG deals, have become the default way of executing CTV ad deals. Programmatic is seen as a way to balance the needs of both buyers and sellers, offering flexibility and predictability in an increasingly digital ecosystem.
However, while programmatic methods like PG are effective, they are not without their limitations. For example, the legacy insertion order (IO) model left publishers in control of grading their own performance, as there was a lack of pre-transaction transparency and independent post-impression verification. As programmatic methods gained popularity, markets began to shift, enabling buyers to make more informed decisions based on available data. This shift allowed buyers to determine the value of an impression before purchasing, giving media owners the ability to increase yield through competition in open and private marketplaces.
The Role of the Scatter Market The “scatter market” refers to unsold ad inventory that is made available after upfront deals have been executed. Because viewership is often unpredictable, media owners frequently withhold some inventory from upfronts to ensure they can meet their commitments should viewership patterns change. The scatter market gives publishers a way to monetize unsold inventory, while buyers gain access to ad placements at more dynamic market rates.
Despite the predictability of upfronts and PG deals, there are limitations to this approach. Programmatic transparency is reduced due to the pre-sale nature of these arrangements, leaving buyers with less control over when and where their ads will run. Although buyers have access to transparent insights, these are often provided after the fact, which can feel reminiscent of the old IO model rather than the more transparent, data-driven nature of modern programmatic advertising.
The Consequences of Commitments While upfront commitments provide benefits, they also come with risks for both buyers and sellers. Buyers, for instance, agree to a fixed rate in advance, which can protect them from rising market prices if a show becomes highly successful. However, if the show fails to meet viewership expectations, buyers end up overpaying for lower-than-expected results. This can lead to inefficiencies, especially when advertisers are looking for a specific audience or campaign outcome.
On the sell side, media owners may face challenges when a show exceeds expectations. If viewership is higher than predicted, unsold inventory becomes more valuable, and publishers will want to monetize this excess. ORTB and programmatic transactions are tools that can help both buyers and sellers navigate these fluctuations in a more efficient and transparent way.
The Growing Role of Biddable CTV While premium content from top broadcasters may never be fully available through an open, biddable market, biddable CTV is emerging as a viable option for unsold inventory. As live events, especially sports, continue to grow in popularity, the availability of CTV inventory outside of upfront deals is expected to increase. Programmatic methods, including ORTB, will likely play an increasingly important role in this evolving landscape.
The key to success in this space will be striking a balance between upfront commitments and the flexibility of biddable CTV. Advertisers are likely to continue using a mix of strategies, leveraging the predictability of upfront deals for certain content while turning to ORTB and programmatic for more dynamic, data-driven advertising opportunities.
Conclusion The CTV advertising landscape is evolving, with programmatic guaranteed deals and upfront arrangements continuing to serve as the foundation for many transactions. However, the rise of open real-time bidding is offering new opportunities for both publishers and buyers to optimize their advertising efforts. By providing transparency, flexibility, and independent verification, ORTB allows media owners to monetize unsold inventory more effectively, while giving buyers greater control over where and when their ads are shown.
As CTV consumption continues to grow, the market will likely see a blend of traditional methods like upfronts and newer, programmatic approaches. Biddable CTV, in particular, is set to play a significant role in the future of this space, offering a more dynamic and competitive marketplace for both buyers and sellers. As live events and other forms of premium content continue to attract large audiences, programmatic and adtech will evolve to meet the changing needs of the CTV market.
